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05

My daughters keep telling me about the Mayan Indians' prediction that 2012 will be the end of the world. One day, a prediction such as that, I imagine, will be correct, but I presume homo sapiens will have long left the paddock when that time comes. What is more likely is that the global hierarchy, the mechanisms of operation and the priority within governments will change; they will be forced to.

 

The United States appears to believe that if you run away from paying debt back by borrowing more, then that is a good day in the office. America has cruised past the point where its Government's debt is bigger than its economy. There is no resolution in sight to this problem apart from the ultimate economic train wreck.

 

There was a time when the US could have reined in its debt, but it did not heed the cues of caution and cut government spending. Anyway, it's all too late now.

 

Europe is in more strife than the US and it appears, whether they like it or not, that Germany and southern Europe may soon split the economic sheets.

 

Iran has decided that shutting down a third of the world's oil supplies that are delivered via the Straits of Hormuz is an idea worth considering. It now appears to be well down the road of developing a nuclear arsenal to back its militant prerogative. If you are looking for something to tip the world economy over the edge, an oil crisis should do it.

 

While in Taiwan before Christmas, I encountered a distinct interest in the securing of alternate energy supplies from Australia, encouraged by the precarious nature of Middle Eastern politics. Here lies a great opportunity for us, and liquefied natural gas is a prime example of that opportunity. However, this must not be at the expense of prime agricultural land.

 

Australia is doing its bit to show it is aware of the current global political climate. We are cooling it with a new broad-based carbon consumption tax, shutting down the Murray-Darling Basin so we cannot feed ourselves, doing our very best to infuriate the neighbours we rely on for border protection with an overnight cessation of the live cattle trade, and borrowing money while showing no capacity in recent years to pay any back. Apparently, we will not get into trouble like most other Western economies. Somehow, miraculously, we will end up at a different financial location.

The question for most Western economies is, ''Where did we go wrong and who did we listen to that got us here?'' Did we become weak, naive, indulgent, all of the above, or is there just a cultural economic expiry date on the side of our socio-economic package. We still do not accept that the game has changed and it's looking a lot like those who bent our rules, or completely ignored them, won. That's life, tough luck; the question now is how do you play the economic game in the new global reality? The social and economic policies that include a Greens utopia have led to a national custard that our children have to mop up after our party if they can.

 

Want an example of naivety? Our preaching to the globe on a carbon tax and by so doing hopping down the economic race track in the perverse belief that China, India and the struggling US will all start hopping along with us. It is quite a unique approach Australia has taken to show the world how to make your people poorer and your economy weak.

 

Debt is the ultimate economic honesty serum; when you are going backwards you get more of it and you are always promising to, but never do, pay it back. That is what is happening to us.

 

So the prognosis for the coming year is very much like the review of the last. As expected unless there is a distinct change in attitude and management style then where others are economically now, we will be later.

 

Despite the fact we had every opportunity at our disposal to place our nation in an extremely strong position and leave for our children an endowment we will curse them with our debt.

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