MEET THE PRESS
INTERVIEWS WITH NATIONALS SENATE LEADER BARNABY JOYCE AND LABOR STRATEGIST BRUCE HAWKER
DISCUSSIONS ABOUT QUEENSLAND ELECTION RESULT, LIKELY FUTURE OF LIBERAL, NATIONAL AND LNP PARTIES, FEDERAL AND STATE DEBT LEVELS, ETS, PETER COSTELLO'S FUTURE
MEET THE PRESS PRESENTER BILL WOODS: Good morning and welcome to Meet the Press. An exceptional week in politics with the Senate firing shots across the Government's bow, and in Queensland a historic win for Premier Anna Bligh. Federally, the Senate blew a $1.6 billion hole in the Budget, while the Opposition kept up its attack on Labor's spending spree.
NATIONALS SENATE LEADER BARNABY JOYCE (Thursday): The Government is an appalling manager and a bad risk and the thing is it's so frustrating because we said this over and over and over again - "Don't get yourself in so much debt, it will cause a problem."
TREASURER WAYNE SWAN (Wednesday): They are united by their hatred of the Labor Party. They should be acting with us because of love of country.
BILL WOODS: Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce is a guest. But first the Queensland election result. The 'Sunday Mail' in Brisbane leads with, "Anna Bligh claiming victory," making history and defying every opinion poll, to easily win the Queensland election and earn the Labor Party a fifth consecutive term.
QUEENSLAND PREMIER ANNA BLIGH (Yesterday): You have given me a mandate to guide Queensland through the global financial crisis. You've given me a mandate to stare the global financial crisis in the face and to bring Queensland out of it stronger, not weaker.
LNP LEADER LAWRENCE SPRINGBORG (Yesterday): Potentially 49% of the 2-party preferred vote is not an insignificant number of people that have supported us, but I accept it's now time to move on, absolutely, and to give someone else the opportunity to take us forward. us forward.
BILL WOODS: Yes, LNP leader Lawrence Springborg quits after three failed attempts to win Government. Labor has retained at least 50 seats in the Queensland Parliament. For the latest on this election, we cross live to Cathy Border. Despite the opinion polls, it appears Anna Bligh's gamble paid off here?
CATHY BORDER: Very handsomely. They said it would be close and the LNP could even win. Anna Bligh has defied the critics and had a comfortable win. Of the 89-seat parliament, Labor has retained at least 50 seats. There has been a 4% swing. But this has really made Anna Bligh's night. She was euphoric. She has certainly got rid of the Peter Beattie shadow and she is a woman who is now standing on her own two feet and can do what she wants now. They did lose a minister in Andrew Macnamara but the LNP couldn't pull off the swing it needed. It needed 8%. It was only 4%.
BILL WOODS: But it was still a swing. What now for the LNP - how do you gauge the result for them?
CATHY BORDER: Lawrence Springborg will exit stage left. There's already the leadership talk. Tim Nicholls, from the inner Brisbane seat of Clayfield, he's emerging as the possible new leader with Jeff Seeney from the seat of Callide as his deputy. The big challenge for the LNP is to not explode and implode now. They really need to keep it a tight ship. They've made inroads and brought back the balance of power a bit in Queensland. But they need to be a united force and really need to pick up those seats in south-east Queensland which they didn't manage this time. But staying united is the real key for them now.
BILL WOODS: What about Pauline Hanson, so much attention focused on her. At last count she was a distant third in her electorate?
CATHY BORDER: She said this would be her last tilt at politics but as we all know, with Pauline Hanson, you can never say never. There were those infamous photos that we're still getting the repercussions from in Queensland. But the Pauline Hanson story, it seems to be never-ending. Who knows? It's a case of watch this space. She was beaten by an LNP member who was famous for barnstorming the set of 'Big Brother'. So watch this space, Bill.
BILL WOODS: Thank you, Cathy. And a retraction, today, incidentally, from the newspaper which published those photos. It was not Pauline, they are now admitting. Cathy Border in Brisbane, thanks for your time. What does this election result say about the health of the LNP concept? Cathy has made some comment. Despite a gain of seven seats, the LNP leader, Lawrence Springborg, is now gone. The Queensland Senator and leader of the Nationals in the Senate, Barnaby Joyce, joins us now. Good morning, Senator Joyce, thanks for your time.
BARNABY JOYCE: You're welcome, Bill. Thanks for having me on your show.
BILL WOODS: How much of a kick in the pants was this for Labor in Queensland, if at all?
BARNABY JOYCE: Well, if we get the swing that we had last night, I'll be very happy at a federal election because 4% will get us across the line. Obviously, when you start from a very low base, it would be a miracle to win government. I never last night, was pretty consistent, I thought the best chance we had was a hung parliament. Because you're starting from such a low base. If there's a fracturing of the ways, we won't end up with two parties, we will probably end up with three, the National Party, the Liberal Party and people who didn't want to be in either would be in the LNP. SO it si important to try and keep the show together. We're on a process towards a victory. We have made a substantial inroad on that process. And the result of last night was a 4% swing towards us. We've increased our seats by around about a third. That is a good result. Everybody's disappointed because we didn't win but we have to be realists and say that from where we started that was never likely to be the face.
BILL WOODS: You weren't always a fan of the LNP concept, even in Queensland. Has it a future there? Is it worth persisting with?
BARNABY JOYCE: I'm a pragmatist. Let's be honest and look at the alternative. People say that you can split the show up. Well, what are you going to have? You're going to have the Liberal Party and then the National Party and of course you'll have people who don't want to be either, the LNP. You will really have not a 3-cornered contest, a 4-conered contest. They will be contesting against each other detracting from the policy objectives, running everyone down amongst themselves. The next time there's an election, if that happens, I won't bother going to the tally room, Bill, I will buy a pizza and get a movie out, because that will be the only thing worthwhile doing that night.
BILL WOODS: Who will be the new leader?
BARNABY JOYCE: There's a whole range of people in the mix. There's some great talent. One thing we don't have to worry about is there's no-one apparent.
BILL WOODS: Does that mean there's no standout candidates either?
BARNABY JOYCE: No, I think there's obviously Simpson, Nicholls, Seeney, there's people out on the Gold Coast. The Sunshine Coast has become a real bastion of conservative politics. It's a strong LNP area. So we have to look at people like David Gibson. We are not going to be lacking potential leaders. They are certainly there in numbers. What we've got to do is make sure that we really take this on board as a step in the right direction, that we're heading towards a goal, we're going to win, we're on the process and if we get that swing again, we're there. So just keep the momentum going. It was always going to be a miracle to try and double your vote in one election. I commend Lawrence and his wife Linda for all the work they've put in. What he said was dead right - 51-49 is not the end of the world. It's 1%. And you're at level pegging.
BILL WOODS: But I assume you won't change your mind the LNP concept would not work federally?
BARNABY JOYCE: No, it wouldn't work federally. It's horses for race courses. Federally the most successful combination is a National-Liberal coalition. It has been the most successful political combination since the Second World War. But in Queensland it's not that we had two parties, we had none -we had to create one to start going in some direction - and we've done that. Now what we've got to do at a federal election is not upset the apple cart there, but in Queensland the alternative is a partisan, internecine war which will be nothing but ashes in our mouth.
BILL WOODS: On that subject, from the relative safety of the upper house, you must be loosening your collar occasionally at what's going on downstairs, or at least in the lower house, to be more specific. There's no doubt the speculation over Peter Costello's leadership ambitions is giving the Government lots of ammunition.
PM KEVIN RUDD (Thursday): I would say to those opposite, that during the break as they wrestle with the rolling leadership tensions between the Member for Higgins and the Member for Wentworth, that the nation expects a little better of a party which seeks to put itself up as the alternative government of Australia.
BILL WOODS: To modify a well-worn phrase, Senator, the elephant in the room has become the whale in the fish pond. How do you view that from where you are?
BARNABY JOYCE: Obviously you want to get rid of static. But we'll have more than enough ammunition. What I'm looking at is the Labor Party. They should have locked up the cheque book. These guys have gone off their head. We're heading towards a $200 billion debt. Even this crowd up here in Queensland - $74 billion in debt, $580,000 per hour in interest. I'll tell you what's going to happen, Bill - if this crowd and the Labor Party crowd in Canberra keep going in that direction, you won't be able to worry about a new hospital, you won't be able to pay for the doctor inside it, there will be no money to catch the train to get there, you will have a financial collapse that's inspired by the fact the Labor Party hasn't got a clue with what to do with money. You ask about Peter Costello, I hope that issue is resolved as quickly as possible, Bill. On the renomination for Higgins, or whether he renominates, I hope it clears the deck, because I have a concern about where my nation is going, with the debt we're collecting. And now we find they're struggling to raise the money for the infrastructure package, because the world doesn't want to lend us any more money. We started with money in the bank - $21.6 billion in the bank. We're heading towards $200 billion in debt and this crowd up here is $74 billion in debt - and it's all coming unstuck.
BILL WOODS: You will have a chance to discuss that in more detail, Senator, after the break, which we do have to take now. When we return we'll have the panel with us. Has the Senate putting a lid on the alcopops tax given the Opposition a nasty hangover? And on St Patrick's Day, Kevin Rudd had more than a touch of the blarney this week.
KEVIN RUDD (Tuesday): I am a direct descendent of St Kevin.
(AUDIENCE LAUGHS)
KEVIN RUDD: Which of itself is problematic. Which is why I have formed the International Society of Much Misunderstood Kevins. Kevin Costner is our patron.
BILL WOODS: Welcome back to Meet The Press. The Senate flexed its muscle this week, Senator Fielding siding with the Opposition to vote down the alcopops tax. And there's still plenty of speculation over whether WorkChoices is really dead. Senators debating in to the early hours of Friday morning, but still failing to pass the Fair Work Bill in its current form.
KEVIN RUDD (Thursday): When you look at the events of this week in Parliament, what we have seen is the Liberal Party and the National Party united on just two measures - how to cut workers wages through their position on WorkChoices and how to cut the prices of alcopops for young Australians. We now welcome our panel - Jessica Irvine from the 'Sydney Morning Herald' and John Stanley from Radio 2UE in Sydney. Welcome.
JESSICA IRVINE, THE ‘SYDNEY MORNING HERALD’: The Government managed to ram its bill through the Senate late on Friday evening with the help of Senator Fielding. WorkChoices is officially dead. Are you grieving?
BARNABY JOYCE: Jessica, I would have liked to have seen a greater definition of small business. It's a bit disappointing. Jessica, we're heading towards a recession and we've got to make sure that when people people find themselves out of work, they've got the capacity to get into work. And of course every time you're employee number 16, they're unlikely to employ you because it will affect all the other employees as far as unfair dismissal goes. No-one wants to be dismissed. Everyone wants a working relationship where there never has to be dismissals. But the reality is small business makes a decision and makes a logical decision that any of your listeners would make, which is, "Well, employee number 16 means I have to change the whole concept of what I've got here and there's a tendency not to employ that person. We want to get people into work. That's goal number one.
JESSICA IRVINE: According to the Government's own forecasts, unemployment is set to rise this year, reaching 7% or even above that. So we'll see jobs going. How will you distinguish how much of that is the economic environment and how much of that is the abolition of WorkChoices?
BARNABY JOYCE: Well, let's look at what the Labor Party's done. They started with $21.6 billion in the bank and we're now heading towards $200 billion in debt. This crowd up here - $74 billion in debt, $580,000 per hour in interest. And in the middle of it, they will bring in an emissions trading scheme that I call ETS - the employment termination scheme - which is going to be putting people out of work. You can't take these people for real if in the middle of a recession they bring about a government policy that puts people out of work. It's going to do exactly that. I reckon we can take home to the Labor Party and say, "You were the clowns who came up with this idea of a tax to take our work from coal miners, the abattoir workers, your working families. If you believe in working families, why on earth are you running up with this policy in the middle of a recession? So it will be slated home to them the unemployment, because they come up with a policy to put people out of work.
JOHN STANLEY, 2UE: There are plenty of suggestions on the ETS the way the Government has handled this and the way it's panning out in the Senate that the Government really doesn't want the ETS to pass the Senate. What do you think the chances are of a stalemate and delay as a result of numbers up there?
BARNABY JOYCE: I've heard through back channels there are people in the Labor Party who say - and I quote - "We will be doing cartwheels when the ETS is canned." Why doesn't Mr Rudd, if he's so forthright and honest say, "We decided it's a lemon, it's not the time to come forward." Why is he does he os belligerently espouse with an earnest look on his face the benefits of a policy that will be no more than a political gesture, do nothing to the environment, but will put Queensland and Australian working families out on to the street, so people are walking around not because of the global financial crisis or global warming, but because of Labor's ETS employment termination scheme.
JOHN STANLEY: Do you think he doesn't believe in the scheme or would prefers it to be delayed?
BARNABY JOYCE: Yes, I think he does, I think in his quieter moments, if he was fair dinkum, he would say, "We've got to can this." But he's going through all the motions. Minister Wong believes in it, without a shadow of a doubt, but I think the rest are trying to have a bet each ways. In Central Queensland, Chris Trevor, the Member for Capricornia, they don't even want to mention the word ETS. You know why? Because it's political poison. And I'll chase them all the way to the election over it if they want to pursue it.
JOHN STANLEY: It won't get through the Senate, though, will it, the way the Senate si structured at the moment?
BARNABY JOYCE: The way it is, the Greens say it's not enough. The Greens, they will always say it's not enough. Political lunacy. And then other people want different types of schemes. I'm just calling it out - let's scrap it.
JESSICA IRVINE: So you're concerned that the ETS will cause job losses - people come out and say that. There's another subject you've been talking about, recently, the Chinalco offer to finance Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto has come out and said 2,000 jobs will be cut immediately if they can't get that financing. So isn't there an inconsistency there in jobs?
BARNABY JOYCE: In the long term we want to own our sovereign asset, Jessica. If we created this juncture between the ownership of the mineral base and our nation and put another sovereign nation as ownership of our mineral base, then we create a problem for us in perpetuity. You can't have the buyer of the resource being the seller of a resource being a sovereign nation within your own nation. If you do that, then, amongst other things, corporate issues become diplomatic issues. We have a thing called vertical integration which is inherently uncompetitive. And we have the prospect of losing from Australia the thing that's made us the wealthy nation that we are. This is not another deal, it's the People's Republic of China, their Government, being the ownership.
JESSICA IRVINE: But surely the more immediate problem is that our mining companies need finance in a world where the taps have been shut off on credit. Isn't that the more immediate problem?
BARNABY JOYCE: Why don't, if it's just about finance, if that's all you have to think about, why not sell them South Australia?
JESSICA IRVINE: Would they pay for it?
BARNABY JOYCE: Well, would that justify, "It's all about jobs, we had to give you one of our States?" It becomes a question of sovereignty. The first job of the Government is to protect the sovereignty of the nation. I thought that was their job, anyhow.
JESSICA IRVINE: But your campaign is a little bit pointless because ultimately it's up to the Treasurer and in the Senate you won't have a vote at all.
BARNABY JOYCE: Oh, yeah, but we have to keep the pressure up, Jessica. We have the directors from China turning up, putting pressure on for the deal to go through. We had Anna Bligh saying it's a great idea for the deal to go through. I want to give the Australian people, and we've done it through the process of this inquiry, the capacity to ventilate their issues as to why it should not go through. Political pressure is what will turn this around. It's a decision of Wayne Swan's. Let's see if he has the ticker to stand up for Australia.
JOHN STANLEY: Can I pick up something you said about Peter Costello? You said if he renominates for his seat of Higgins, that's the time to clear the deck. If he renominates is he then duty bound to go to the front bench?
BARNABY JOYCE: If he renominates we're duty bound to make sure we clear the air on this issue. Because Malcolm needs clear air. And if Peter wants to have a crack at the job, let's get it on, get it sorted out.
JOHN STANLEY: He should challenge for the leadership if he renominates?
BARNABY JOYCE: If he renominates he obviously has the belief in a long-term career in politics and it's ridiculous Peter being on the backbench. And the questions will just go on. We have too many important things in front of us, I'm generally worried about where our debt level is going. The fact that we are, as a nation, running out of, not only money, we've run out of that, they spent it on whatever they blew it on, the stimulus package. God knows where they got that idea from! But now we're getting to the capacity where we can't borrow more money, that's how bad it's getting. And in the middle of this they're bringing forward the ETS to chuck people out on to the street. We need clear air to get the message through.
BILL WOODS: Thank you very much for joining us today, Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce.
BARNABY JOYCE: Thanks, Bill.
BILL WOODS: We have to take a break. Coming up - what the Queensland election means for the Labor Party, strategist Bruce Hawker will join us next - and the ongoing anger over fat cat salaries and executive pay-outs inspire the Minister for Superannuation and cartoonist Mick Knight in the 'Herald-Sun' this week.
NICK SHERRY: The retirement gold watch replaced by a truckload of gold bouillon.
BILL WOODS: Corporate fat cats are dubbed morbidly obese after gorging on golden handshakes.
BILL WOODS: You're watching Meet the Press. Labor has of course defied the polls. They've retained the Queensland State Government by a healthy margin. Anna Bligh made history, the first elected female Premier. For more on how they did it and perhaps a little more on the broader picture, we're joined by a man with an inside view of the campaign, welcome to Bruce Hawker. Thank you for your time.
LABOR STRATEGIST BRUCE HAWKER: Thank you, Bill.
JOHN STANLEY: You worked on the inside of the Labor campaign. The polls were telling us it was going to be very close and commentators were telling us it would be very close. Were you surprised or is it one of those instances where the message has been put out things would be closer than you thought they would be?
BRUCE HAWKER: I thought it would be closer. I thought we would be probably within one or two seats of being forced to try to negotiate something with independents, which would have been very difficult for Labor. The truth, though, was that the LNP campaign really petered out in Brisbane. And we were quietly hopeful that would be the case, that they would not accept the prescription that was being put forward by Lawrence Springborg and his team which was to cut a billion dollars out of the budget every year for three years -a big number.
JOHN STANLEY: Was it more their failure or your success? When did it turn? Did the polls get it wrong or a late shift?
BRUCE HAWKER: I think there was a late shift. I think Anna Bligh pushed hard in the last three days of the campaign. She did this 3-day, 30-seat blitz which gave her a real sense of momentum and enthusiasm. But I do think that very early in the campaign, Lawrence Springborg made a mistake, and that was to really deny that there was a major global downturn. That gave Labor an opportunity to present him as being somebody who was completely out of step with world trends and world thinking. And when he said he would cut a billion dollars out of the budget, we were able to sharply contrast his proposal which was essentially in line with what the Federal Opposition is doing to cut, rather than to do which was Anna Bligh was going to do, was to create 100,000 jobs in three years. So she came out with a positive message. In the end Lawrence Springborg only had a negative one to tell.
JESSICA IRVINE: There was some criticism of Anna that she wasn't cutting through, but now she's had this victory, what does this tell us about the significance of females running for an election? Is it something we'll see repeated at other State Government levels and perhaps at the federal level?
BRUCE HAWKER: I hope so. The first female Premier ever elected in her own right in this country - this makes a historic victory. I think, though, that we will see more women running and probably at a better time in the electoral cycle. What we did see in this election campaign was that a lot of women were voting for Anna Bligh. There was a bit of a gender imbalance, but it favoured us. More women were coming out and supporting Bligh than men. But it was one of the factors that stopped the LNP push, particularly in Brisbane.
JESSICA IRVINE: Looking back on it, is there anything you would have done differently about this campaign?
BRUCE HAWKER: That's an interesting one. I think probably not too many changes would have been made to the campaign. We did push very hard for an AFL stadium on the Gold Coast. And that is going to go ahead. And we pitched that very much as a policy for the Gold Coast, where six Labor seats were up for grabs. That gave the Opposition to say, "Wrong priorities. We're talking about health, you're talking about an AFL stadium." Notwithstanding the fact that Labor is building a $1.5 billion hospital at Southport. So, that was probably the only area I would have looked back and said that maybe we could have calibrated the message differently.
JOHN STANLEY: Hypothetical, Bruce - you get a call from Kevin Rudd saying, "Based on the results yesterday, how will Queensland look in an early double dissolution election later in the year?"
BRUCE HAWKER: I don't think he would be thinking very seriously about that right now, but I think he would take comfort from the fact that Queenslanders were prepared to go with a message which is largely in tune with what he was saying - and that is that we do need to go out there and create jobs and spend to create jobs and now's not the time to be cutting back. But I don't think Kevin Rudd's looking at an early double dissolution election.
JOHN STANLEY: Not at all, not tempted at all?
BRUCE HAWKER: No, I don't think so. I think he'll go the full term.
JOHN STANLEY: That message you've just detailed - because Barnaby Joyce showed us earlier the message they'll run - which is it's a spendathon, that they're running up debt. Do you think in Queensland people are prepared to wear debt based on what they saw?
BRUCE HAWKER: That was the Lawrence Springborg message. He ran hard on the issue of debt and claimed Queenslanders weren't prepared to wear debt. Well, the response of Queenslanders is in times like this, we want to put jobs before cuts. And they did. There was no real swing in Brisbane at all except around an issue of a hospital on the north side of Brisbane. In the regions, people voted solidly for Labor.
BILL WOODS: That's all we have time for. Sorry, Bruce. Thank you very much for that and thanks for being with us. Thanks to our panel, Jessica Irvine and John Stanley. It all went very, very quickly, as it tends to do. If you have any questions, email us.