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13

The economic issues of today are unfortunately only part one of the problem. Currently everyone gets the chance to watch the crisis on TV after work, but the number at work will be the issue in the near future.

Economic conditions will be influenced by access to finance domestically and internationally.

China's belief that their table in the restaurant will get richer, when everyone else is struggling to pay the bill, will unfortunately be proved false. Wealth is generated by funds passing from table to table and new patrons coming in the door. Money spinning furiously around one table in isolation will not support the restaurant in the long term. China relying on China to save the day will not work if the US is in recession and Europe is there with them. China's wealth is primarily, but not exclusively, driven by its capacity to export and if this was not the case it would have fully floated its currency.

If America is not buying off China then China will not buy off Australia and contractors in the mining industry will find out why they are contractors not employees. Other rural soft commodities will hold up but imported items, such as fuel, will continue to prove a major economic dampener.

The Reserve Bank misreading of the economic conditions has meant that they took interest rates too high and in the rush now to bring them down the dollar has fallen over. This pushes up domestic input costs and exacerbates the impending economic downturn.

Australia, with a service based salary and wage earner employment force highly geared in the major capital city mortgage belts, has the potential to drag large areas into negative equity causing further pressure on banks. The service industry itself is in a tenuous position as it is either largely transferable to overseas venues or is associated with non essential expenditure. For example, insurance can be run from a country with cheaper wage rates, and if things are tight I will not be going out to dinner and will clean the carpets myself.

The answer is the plan to mitigate the move of resources that become dislodged by the economic downturn into effective alternate sections of the economy. The government's infrastructure fund should be foreshadowing the labelling of items of construction to deal with the dislodging of sectors involved with mining. Inland rail is a good fit being both in the same area and using the same expertise and assets, as well as having vast downstream benefits.

If racing V8s can use E85 with 85% domestic ethanol then why on earth do we persist in sending our wealth overseas by relying on 100% oil based fuel in our domestic car fleet. Extravagance that could be afforded in boom times is soon to be behind us. The more money that gets transferred out of the domestic economy via oil based fuel means the more stress on the access to funds for a domestic service based economy.

Security of wealth must be underpinned by clear title to land as this has been watered down over the years by environmental issues, native title issues and abundance of other government inspired caveats. The ultimate underpinning of the currency and the economy is the clear resolute title to land, whether that is house and land or rural land. Land is the ultimate standard and as a finite resource defines the wealth of a nation.

The ETS has to be put off until there is a clear understanding of our long term position. As I have stated before, if you are looking at reducing carbon emissions all your wishes are about to come true and without a job you will have plenty of time to enjoy the cleaner air.

I have always been a sceptic of the decoupling scenario and have stated that where the nose of the plane goes the tail quickly follows. The nose of the plane is the United States. It was, is, and will be for some time so let us hope that they get it right before too much longer.

Ends

 

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